The USDA has tightened its 2025-26 US corn outlook amid strong export demand.
In its monthly supply-demand update Tuesday, the USDA raised its corn export forecast for the current marketing year by 125 million bu from last month to a record 3.2 billion bu, now almost 12% above a year earlier. With no other supply or demand changes, the upward revision in exports resulted in an identical-sized reduction in projected 2025-26 ending stocks to 2.029 billion bu – still well above 1.532 billion a year earlier.
“Export inspection data showed robust foreign demand during November and implies total shipments during the September-November quarter will likely exceed 800 million bu, surpassing the prior high set during 2007,” the USDA said in its commentary.
Traders and analysts were expecting a downward revision in corn ending stocks this month, although only a much more modest decline of about 9 million bu. Corn futures were trading ¼ to 4 cents/bu higher this afternoon, following the report’s noon hour EST release.
Foreign corn production is estimated lower this month – down about 3.2 million tonnes from November to 1.283 billion tonnes - with declines for Ukraine, Canada, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Senegal partially offset by increases for the EU, Russia, and Zimbabwe.
Ukraine corn production is down 3 million tonnes from November to 29 million, but still above 26.8 million in 2024-25, with reductions to both area and yield based on reported government data to date, where harvest has been slow because of wet conditions in key growing areas. With the drop in output, Ukraine corn exports for 2025-26 are down 1.5 million tonnes from last month to 23 million, still above 20.02 million a year earlier
Brazil and Argentina corn production for 2025-26 is unchanged from last month at 131 million and 53 million tonnes, respectively, and compared to 119 million and 51 million a year ago.
At 8 million tonnes, estimated China corn imports are steady from November and up from 1.82 million in 2024-25.
World corn ending stocks are estimated at 279.15 million tonnes this month, down 2.2 million from November and down from 293.37 million in 2024-25.
The estimated season-average corn price received by US producers is unchanged this month at $4/bu.
